Published Dec 3, PM. Brett Rossio is a Meteorologist at Accuweather. This is his tale from the field as told to Sandra Gutierrez G. The models my fellow meteorologists and I use to make forecasts can be fairly accurate. But when predicting conditions in a very specific area, things get tricky. I had personally analyzed the weather data and was confident there would be no rain.
Forecast Maps. Hour by Hour Forecast. Winter Weather. Graphical Hazards. Marine Forecasts. Coastal Flood. Weather Hazard Briefing. Recreational Forecast. Text Bulletins. Climate Plots. Submit Storm Report. Submit a Spot Request. Today, Lorenz is known as the father of chaos theory , a set of scientific principles describing highly complex systems, such as weather systems, where small changes in initial conditions radically change the final results.
Because of chaos, there is a limit to how accurate weather forecasts can be. Lorenz set this limit at two weeks. Modern meteorologists use state-of-the-art technology and techniques to tame chaos, such as the ensemble forecast , which consists of several forecasts, each one based on slightly different starting points. If each prediction in the ensemble looks the same, then the weather is likely to "behave.
Meteorologists also rely on Doppler radar to monitor weather conditions more effectively and improve forecasts. Doppler radar requires a transmitter to emit radio waves into the sky. The waves strike atmospheric objects and bounce back. Clouds moving away from the transmitter return different kinds of waves than clouds moving toward the transmitter.
A computer in the radar converts data about the reflected radio waves into pictures showing cloud coverage and bands of precipitation, as well as wind speeds and direction. Because of this technology, meteorologists can now predict the weather better than ever, especially when they limit how far they look into the future.
For example, up to 12 hours out, meteorologists offer fairly reliable forecasts of general conditions and trends.
Unfortunately, thanks to chaos, they will never be able to predict the weather with absolute certainty, which is how surprise storms -- tornadoes and torrential, flooding rains -- continue to devastate communities with little warning. For this reason, it might be best to carry an umbrella, even on days forecasted to be bright and sunny. Sign up for our Newsletter! Mobile Newsletter banner close.
For many generations, almanacs which contained the end-product of many years of observations were used to predict climate conditions on a given day.
Even though they became more and more sophisticated over time tracking temperature , pressure , wind , and humidity measurements at different times of day, in addition to sky conditions and moon phases , they weren't perfect; rain still fell when sunny and fair conditions were expected, and cold snaps and heat waves turned up unexpectedly.
Later, observations made over a wide geographic areas were reported to regional weather station networks and national weather bureaus. Weather maps collected and displayed all of this timely information, but they were still imperfect tools. Since the midth century, digital computers have made it possible to calculate changes in atmospheric conditions mathematically and objectively using weather models that continue to evolve, but even these tools just brought forecasts closer to perfection.
Why is predicting the weather so difficult for meteorologists? Well, meteorologists need to track multiple conditions and variables at the same time across vast areas, and many of these variables interact and affect each other.
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